Автор Elena Nikolova, our permanent correspondent in Berlin   
Събота, 29 Ноември 2008 01:59

MPs from different political fractions of the Bundestag/SPD, FDP, CDU and B90Gruenen/, along with experts  in different areas, published a Green book with possible crisis scenarios for the interior security in September 2008. In it, they raise questions absent from the political life. The analysis shows that there is no need for further regulation of the law basis, but for basic desicions for a new concept for risk management and handling crises. As it turns out, there is no single definition of „catastrophe“ in the different provinces of Germany. The framing conditions of security have changed significantly – in the area of international terrorism, international organised crime, climate, information society, disease spread, privatisation of important infrastructural companies etc.

The authors of the Green book admit multi-layered reasons of different nature which would lead for instance to a shut-down of power plants and significant parts of the electric system. The consequences would affect the whole european system. The presence of means of communication is crucial for the interaction of administration. The transport of patients would be blocked for up to two days after the beginning of the complete power failure.
In both chapters about terrorism it is said that currently the German security services are working on more than 200 cases of islamist-terrorist character. Here should be added the cases concerning bans on islamist organisations and unions. According to observers though, they are just the tip of the iceberg of radicalisation of an increasing part of the muslim population of Germany. A significant point is the symbiosis between terrorism and organised crime and perhaps this tendency is being underestimated. The authors of the Green book alarm about the elimination of obstacles in the co-operation between police and intelligence services.
The consequences of a possible pandemic according to Frankfurt specialists would be 24 million ill and 103 000 dead in 8 weeks at average values of the diseases.
In 10 to 20 years a threatening sutiation can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Depending on different scenarios and different climate preservation policy the temperature on the surface of our planet in the year 2100 compared to 1990 could increase between 1,1 and 6,4 degrees with all possible consequences.
The Green book leaves the impression that certain areas are studied, while others, in which risk scenarios could also arise, are omitted. Take, for instance, a possible atomic power plant failure (many such plants in Western Europe will work until 2022-2025) or a terrorist attack against one. The prognoses of future wars for water resources are more than realistic. One of the consequences will be mass emigrant waves which will flood the Old continent. All these and other questions deserve an extended study. The possibilities of the specific conditions on the Balkans should also be studied.